This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. Not only has He always known us; he has known everything each of us would do, for every one of our days has been written in His book before one of them ever came to be. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? To that, we could add the probability that the one sperm and the one egg met one another because she wasnt in the mood, but lets not split hairs here. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." Just starting from your parents, the chance of them meeting and creating you is astronomically slim. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. On one try.. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. Which one's bigger? And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Heres how the National Center for Science Education puts it: Any event with a probability greater than 0, no matter how low, will be likely to happen if given enough opportunity, and sure to happen if opportunity is unlimited., Michele Caballero Siamitras Kassube on Pixabay. Are You a Miracle? Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. "It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.. The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. That is the reason the majority dislike games, lotto, and sports beting. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. They each roll the dice and they all come up with. To complete the analysis: (102,640,000) (1045,000) (40,000,000) = 4 x 102,685,007 102,685,000. Borels Law is about the probability of events occurring. He breaks the chances you were born down like this: The probability of your parents meeting is one in 20,000. Now things start getting interesting. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. Why? decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 10 2,685,000. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001." What it Took For You to Exist That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. The odds of being born are less than the total number of atoms in the known universe! So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. I would not exist if my parents had not existed and then met. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). But lets make it longer. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. The perfect deal in bridge is that each player receives all the cards in one suit. Sean said that we have already won the cosmic lottery simply by being born because the odds of that happening alone is one in a gazillion times. This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). The Art of Female Orgasm: Tue 21 June teleseminar with Nicole Daedone, Dating App-ocalypse: 10 Reasons to Delete Your Dating Apps Right Now, How can I best serve you? On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion or 4 x 10, So, the chance of your particular chain of ancestors having remained unbroken for all that time would be 1 in 2, To account for all 150,000 generations, we raise 400 quadrillion to the 150,000, Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 10, This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. -- from "Love at First Sight", Wislawa Szymborska, The End and The Beginning, 1993. I hope you use your chance well. Or is it much too early in the week, this being only Monday, for thinking about stuff like this? Were we meant to be, each and every one of us? Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. (+ My podcast interview on raising your spirits), Staying Sane in Trying Times Seminars, Apr 22-25, WED FEB 19: The 5 Magic Questions What 5000 Womens Letters Reveal About Love & Dating, How often should you call him? Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Otherwise theyd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. That's 150,000 generations. What are the odds of that? We might not all like the cards we were dealt in life, but it is our choice to play what weve been given or to go on blaming our lot which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. As Borel pointed out such an event was so improbable as to be impossible. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. Me neither. Are they gross exaggerations? Consider some of the contingencies and requirements for your existence as set forth by Mr. Binazir. Is that an African fly or a European one? First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. But on all probability it would. Those who say Charles Darwins concept of evolution is hogwash gleefully seize on Borels Law to support their arguments. Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million dollar lottery 9 times over your life again than you would have being born. That should always be a great sense of wonder and a real source of gratitude. Step 3. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! Then, I hope and believe, that He has written my name on the palm of His hand, so whenever He looks at His hand, He thinks of me. This button displays the currently selected search type. Hello there! It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. You can start the series by clicking HERE. or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. If we really took it in we would fall on our knees with rapture and tears of gratitude. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). Step 1. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? You are, He Will Come Like a Thief to Take Back What Is His, Flee to the Truth When Tempted A Homily for the First Sunday of Lent, Ash Wednesday Breaks All the Rules of Modern Churchthink. And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? saving. I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Now lets get down to some of the biological details: each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Fortunes were lost as players bet huge amounts on red in the erroneous belief that the law of probabilities dictated the ball would not drop on black again. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). He assumes each person is alert and awake for eight hours a day (this allows for downtime watching reality TV shows when the human brain is entirely inactive). To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. As a comparison, the number of atoms in the body of an average male (80kg, 175 lb) is 1027. If I had 400 trillion pennies to my name, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. Thats a number so huge it hurts to think about it. Yes, it is clear the 'opportunity' of born is complete chance and luck. June 24, 2022 . It makes me want to practice love, forgiveness, gratitude, acceptance, service/charity, kindness, being humble while inherently owning my miraculous self. Check out my course, The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough at the top of the page. As you aptly point out, many persons losts lots of money at the roulette because they quests mathematically accurate. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents.
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