moody's corporate default and recovery rates 2020 pdf

On Oct. 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised its issuer credit ratings to 'B-' from 'D' after the issuer announced it had completed a debt restructuring transaction, resulting in US$400 million of debt reduction. On Sept. 18, 2020, we placed the issuer credit ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications after Argentina's central bank tightened foreign exchange accessing regulations. On June 11, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its credit ratings on the issuer. Earlier, on April 2, 2020, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'B-' because of weaker operating performance projections in 2020 owing to the coronavirus pandemic. In 2021, we rated over $6 trillion of issuance and served more than 1,100 issuers who accessed the markets for the first time. On May 12, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating on Texas-based oil and gas exploration and production company Fieldwood Energy LLC to 'D' from 'CCC' after the issuer failed to make the interest payments on its first- and second-lien term loans. (See table 15 for the 13 publicly rated investment-grade defaults during this period.) (For more information on methodologies and definitions, see Appendix I.). . On Aug. 28, 2020, we withdrew our ratings on the company. We considered the transaction to be a distressed exchange and tantamount to a default on the notes because the noteholders were not adequately compensated and received less than they were originally promised under the securities. On Oct. 5, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD'. On July 2, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on California-based specialty apparel retailer Tailored Brands Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC+', reflecting interest payment default on its senior notes due 2022. For example, 'AA+' rated issuers were still rated 'AA+' one year later 79.3% of the time, and 'AA' rated issuers were still rated 'AA' one year later 80.9% of the time. It is expected to reduce debt by US$500 million. If an issuer defaults or if the rating on the issuer is withdrawn in the middle of the year, then it would be considered rated 'D' or not rated as of Dec. 31 of that particular year. Note: Descriptive statistics for regions other than U.S. calculated from 1996 to 2020 due to sample size considerations. As a result, the trustee placed the issuer into receivership (with KordaMentha as receivers). The two-year default rates in table 24 are calculated in the same way as those in the cumulative average section for the two-year column in table 32, while those in the 'D' column of table 34 are equivalent to adding up all the defaults behind the two-year column's annual default rates in table 32, divided by the sum of all the issuers in table 32 for the years 1981-2020. On July 7, 2020, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. On Nov. 23, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based exploration and production company Gulfport Energy Corp. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the issuer elected to skip its interest payment on its 6% senior unsecured notes maturing Oct. 15, 2024, and enter into a 30-day grace period. Over the long term, the global weighted average Gini coefficient was 82.8% over the one-year horizon, 75.3% over three years, 71.5% over five years, and 69.2% over seven years (see table 27). To facilitate the proposed exchange, the issuer entered a new term loan facility of US$190 million maturing in 2024. On Oct. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based telecom operator Oi S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced that the judicial court ratified the amendment to the company's judicial reorganization plan, which was approved by the majority of its creditholders on Sept. 8, 2020. The rating action followed the issuer's completed exchange of its unsecured notes of cash and PIK. Even with a 60-day grace period, we did not expect payments. On Jan. 9, 2019, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Missouri-based retailer Moran Foods LLC (SAL Acquisition Corp.) to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the company elected not to make an interest payment due Dec. 31, 2019, while entering into a forbearance agreement. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). On Feb. 14, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Italy-based maritime transportation services Moby SpA to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the company entered into a standstill agreement to not pay scheduled payments in mid-February. On Nov. 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC' from 'SD', reflecting our assessment of the company's credit risk following the debt repurchases. to 'D' from 'CC' after the issuer completed a distressed debt exchange for both its US$115 million notes due in April 2021 and US$370 million notes due in April 2022. On June 5, 2020, we raised the rating on the issuer to 'CCC+' from 'D' on revised credit agreements, which reduced its annual cash interest payments by $10 million, which, in turn, alleviated near-term liquidity concern. On April 16, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit ratings on Cyprus-based real estate market investor O1 Properties Ltd. to 'D' from 'CC' after the issuer missed a coupon payment on US$350 million Eurobonds. The debt structure of the issuer became unsustainable, with adjusted debt to EBITDA close to 8x in 2019. On Dec. 9, 2020, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' following the distressed conversion of term loans to PIK toggle. This preview shows page 40 - 41 out of 49 pages. On April 1, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Colorado-based crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company Whiting Petroleum Corp to 'D' from 'CCC+' after the issuer filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. On Oct. 19, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based home security and monitoring company Central Security Group Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer completed a distressed debt exchange on the first-lien credit facility, in which lenders will exchange about US$396 million of their respective claims for a new US$200 million first-lien term loan due 2025 and most of the reorganized equity, and the second-lien lenders will exchange 100% of their US$50 million claim for 1% of the company's reorganized equity. The group entered into a forbearance agreement with its bondholders, such that they will not take any enforcement action with respect to the nonpayment of interest payments on the 2026 notes that were due on Oct. 30, 2020, or on the 2024 notes that were due on Nov. 16, 2020. Moody's Corporation reported revenue of $1.5 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2022, down 5% from the prior-year period. The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. The issuer entered into a forbearance agreement for deferring the interest payments on its second lien-term loan until June 30, 2020. On Feb. 24, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Mississippi-based consumer products supplier VIP Cinema Holdings Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the issuer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Since the beginning of 2020, secured debtholders had received 95% of par, on average, in the form of cash, preferred stock, and common equity for US$130 million of secured notes due 2023. In the summary section at the bottom of tables 30-32, the first row shows the issuer-weighted averages of the marginal default rates. On Feb. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based high technology service provider Tunghsu Group Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer missed interest and principal payments on three onshore bonds. For example, of the 251 companies that defaulted within 12 months of having been rated, 233 (or 92.8%) were originally in the 'B' or 'CCC'/'C' categories (see table 12). On June 3, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on U.K.-based offshore drilling contractor Valaris PLC to 'D' from 'CCC-' because the company did not paid the June 1 interest payments on its senior notes due 2022 and 2042, and the company continued to discuss the terms of a comprehensive debt restructuring with its debtholders. The upgrade rate fell to 2.8% in 2020--the lowest annual rate since 1981. Further, on Sept. 25, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit rating to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced it retired US$38.7 million principal of 2025 notes at below the price of US$575 per 1,000 principal. On April 16, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Plano, Texas-based department store operator J.C. Penney Co. Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC' after the company announced it would not make an interest payment. The transaction, which was settled on Oct. 14, was considered distressed, as opposed to opportunistic. Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two up to 20 years. On Aug. 26, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'B-' from 'SD'. That is, when default pressure is high, economic conditions are such that the likelihood of companies from across the rating spectrum suffering a more rapid deterioration of credit quality is higher. The majority (94%) began the year rated in the 'B' or 'CCC'/'C' category (57% 'CCC'/'C' and 37% 'B'). Fourth quarter earnings releases have provided insight into corporate margin pressures, but labor market commentary signals that some of these headwinds may be abating. Given this track record, monitoring the trends of newly assigned ratings could prove useful in anticipating future default activity, based on the observation that years with high numbers of new 'B-' and lower ratings will likely be followed by increased default risk. Meaningfully lower yoy default rates in 2021 are expected for the energy and retail industries, which produced a significant volume of defaults over the prior five years. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons. The company had debt of about US$1.4 billion and was not likely to pay the interest within the grace period. Earlier, on June 6, 2020, we lowered our issuer credit rating on SMLP to 'CCC' from 'B'. This is an extremely high level, just surpassing 2009, when the ratio hit 56.3% amid a wave of distressed exchanges, which, once completed, often result in 'B-' ratings. Initial ratings, or those as of Dec. 31, 1980. After experiencing high downgrade and default rates in 2020, ratings were much more stable in 2021. Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. On Aug. 7, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit ratings to 'D' from 'SD' following GFamsa's bankruptcy filing in both Mexico and the U.S. On Dec. 12, 2020, we withdrew the issuer credit ratings on the company at its request. The drilling market was under stress, and the drop in oil prices and the pandemic furthered worsened the problem. Tunghsu also signed a letter of intent to acquire a 26%-38% stake in Alderon Iron Ore Corp., which would be conducted by its subsidiary. On Nov. 2, 2020, Tennessee-based real estate company CBL & Associates Properties Inc. defaulted after the issuer filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. On April 6, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-headquartered home health provider BW Homecare Holdings LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC'. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. On July 8, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Indonesia-based property developer PT Modernland Realty Tbk. Moody's expects the overall default rate for commodity companies to fall sharply this year, to 3.4% from 12.6% in 2016. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. On June 19, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Oklahoma City-based oil and gas exploration and production company Chesapeake Energy Corp. to 'D' from 'CC' as the company skipped the interest payments on its 5.375% senior notes due 2021 and 8.0% senior notes due 2027. On Oct. 1, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating to 'CCC-' from 'CCC+' on liquidity concerns, as audience attendance remained weak after reopening and major release dates were delayed. Conversely, among nonfinancial entities, willingness to operate with higher leverage to fund share buybacks, expand businesses, or finance acquisitions has gradually increased. In line with expectations, the majority of companies that defaulted within one year of the original rating are from the lowest speculative-grade rating categories, 'B' and lower. We viewed the proposed transaction, if completed, as distressed and tantamount to a selective default because the proposed transaction involved debt exchange at a discount. On July 31, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' on the basis of increased liquidity. On May 4, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on New York-based apparel retailer J. Earlier, on April 8, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit rating on Fieldwood to 'CCC' from 'B-', reflecting the issuer's weak credit metrics, constrained liquidity, and the potential that it may breach covenants on its first-lien term loan. Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENTS FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. On July 1, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating to 'D' following the company's missed interest payments on its first-lien and second-lien debt and entrance into another forbearance agreement until Sept. 30, 2020. Earlier, on March 20, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit rating to 'CCC' from 'B' because the gaming operator and gaming equipment sectors were facing an unprecedented decline in revenue resulting from the temporary closures of casinos across the U.S. On May 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on New York-based fitness club operator Equinox Holdings Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer completed an amendment to its partial guarantee on affiliate company SoulCycle Inc.'s credit facility that will allow it to delay a mandatory payment, which we view as tantamount to a default. On Sept. 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings at the issuer's request. On Sept. 14, 2020, we withdrew our ratings on the company. On July 23, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on the issuer to 'D' from 'CCC-' upon the company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, following which, on Jan. 5, 2021, the ratings on the issuer were withdrawn. On May 27, 2020, we withdrew the ratings on the issuer. On Nov. 4, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on the issuer. Earlier, on April 22, 2020, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Revlon to 'CC' from 'CCC-' after the company announced it was pursuing a recapitalization transaction to extend the maturity of its existing 2016 $1.8 billion term loan, term out its unrated $200 million term loan issued in 2019, and enhance its liquidity position.

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